Confluence: What happens at the intersection of the Energy Trilemma, Capital & Politics? Part I: Energy
The Energy Confluence
A confluence is a geographical feature where two or more bodies of flowing water combine to form a new channel. This occurrence of both natural origin and/or human intervention to the natural order therefore provides an apt analogy in some interesting ways to the current global experience. An immediate confluence to the current moment emanates from the combined impacts of back-to-back crises in the form of COVID followed soon after by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The results of these monumental impacts which history will no doubt bookmark have been well documented and if you are reading this, you are most likely to have had some sort of firsthand experience of what this turbulence has meant. This is whether through inflationary pressures , straining interest-bearing credit, pricier food & services, weakened exchange rates vs the US$ , higher energy costs or other closely related areas of challenged supply chains. A further addendum of late has been instability in some corners of the banking sector – a piece of string we anxiously pull as the post 2021 increasing interest environment persists and puts pressure on some vulnerable banks especially in the modern domain where bank run contagion can be accelerated by the eases of modern online banking.
The initial aim was to cram these views into one read but in the process of doing so, realizing each deserve their own airing if any dent of justice is to be made on each of the topics – and even with this, volumes more can be said. Therefore, please consider this as dipping the proverbial toe into the waters.
This series of discussion will therefore begin with basis on the area of primary energy (and by close relation, electricity) – what its scientifically and engineering-based existence means for all energy discourse and what dynamic it sets up for the other socio-economic rivers in Part 2 (Capital) and 3 (Politics).
There is an inherent attempt here to put these in a causal order of sorts, but such is the complexity that each bleeds into the other and feedback loops are inevitable. However, starting off with energy feels natural as that is the issue that has brought all the elements to the fore. This attempt also includes pertinent questions about the future compatibility of the human race and other co-existing species with life on the planet, how future energy requirements are funded and the social dynamics thereof. All of which is injected into a world which already has its own historical inflection points and context. Important areas of inflection and context being, but not limited to:
Development of spoken language acting as a bridge to create significant leaps in organization and communication,
Domestication of plants and animals (agriculture) creating foundations for less nomadic societies and therefore cities
Conflicts and war (including religious revolutions and resource related conflict like colonization and conquests) &
Technological revolutions (materials, industrial & computing - including latest significant developments in AI like Open AI’s Chat GPT and Dall· E 2).
Why is the Sun important to energy?
Regardless of one’s spiritual/scientific/philosophical inclination, an aspect that can be considered to agreeably act as an integral anchor to life is the existence of the sun. This is not new news given that we have unequivocally known of its necessity towards growing the plants we eat and giving us warmth. It is also a major underpinning point to realize that as we stand today, over 90% of our energy comes from/has come from the sun directly or indirectly.
This is because fossil fuels (coal, natural gas and oil ~ 80-85% of primary energy as shown in image) are themselves derived from processes of decomposition of living organisms over millions of years with these living organisms having sustained themselves via transformation of solar energy from the sun into chemical energy subsequently stored in hydrocarbons formed as they decomposed under high heat and pressure. Then when we look at renewables (~10-15% of primary energy including hydroelectric), this is also related to the sun’s involvement. Normal solar energy (PV or CSP derived) is pretty self evident , but with wind we can say that the geographical process that creates wind i.e., air in motion from high pressure to low pressure is a result of temperature gradients involving heating of earth’s surface by the sun. With hydroelectricity, the wind scenario acts as an analogy only this time, the effect of the sun is on the hydrologic cycle that heats up the surface and creates the rain that ends up in rivers and dams. The energy source with potentially the most tenuous relationship to the sun is nuclear energy but even here we are likely to encounter the importance of the sun in forming uranium if taking a cosmochemistry view.
The key nature of the sun in all of our energy is a point worth belaboring because it is grounded on the hard-core practicality of physical science in terms of energy and energy conversion on top of which we overlay the practicality of engineering in order harness and manipulate energy to make our way of life possible. This firm grounding in practicality is then key in its application to what can therefore be considered practical solutions when faced with the inevitable challenges that come in the process of realizing our aspiration to allow energy to be accessed by all. Put alternatively, the science and engineering act as physical limitations to the solutions available to us as society as opposed to we as society being in full control. As at today, some key practical considerations and constraints for example relate to:
The energy and power density of each energy source i.e., how much space is needed to produce a unit of energy e.g., car charging or equivalent land needed for solar versus other energy sources.
The geographic lottery of where energy resources are located e.g., solar irradiation, average wind speeds, hydrocarbon deposits, rivers systems etc.
The demographic spread around energy resources ,where demand is consumed and the geographical terrain in between e.g., mountains, oceans, or sheer distance.
The lack of utility scale storage for electricity therefore production must be matched to demand (or vice-versa) which has major implications for the economics of thermal power plant utilization but also importantly implications for management of the intermittency of some renewables sources.
We continuously improve on finding work-arounds on these barriers and maybe even further given our demonstrated human history, we have come to expect it of our leading minds. However, this does not change the reality that underpins these constraints as of today and in the short to medium term. The main take away here is that solutions to get to where we need will not be quick and easy and by not being quick and easy, it should also prepare us for an inclination that solutions touted as obvious or having minimal trade offs, be met with righteous suspicion (and that is before introducing capital and politics into the picture which inevitably muddy the waters).
Energy, Everywhere, All at Once
The concept of energy has come to feel so ubiquitous to us that it is seen as a natural way of life. One can argue that it is natural so much so that it is easy to be lulled into a sense of malaise as to how integral it is to us. However, recent global events have reawakened us to the hardcore practicality of energy - the geographic lottery of the sources of our energy, the physical processes required to make it available to us and the overall challenges that come with the lack of energy security as exemplified by low electricity capacity in Sub-Saharn Africa or concerns around heating availability in the cold winter Northern Hemisphere months.
This malaise is not all too surprising particularly for prosperous and privileged members of society/societies since having access to something with ease creates a sense of psychological comfort that directs us to focus on a different array of activities to take up our mental and consumptive faculties– good or bad, frivolous or otherwise. This blasé attitude towards the importance of energy can be argued to be visible in how another fundamental branch of energy, that is the energy from food, has evolved. For those whom the next meal is not a desperate thought borne out of survival need, food has come to be seen less as a matter of sustenance to energize the body and fundamentally keep anatomical processes going but arguably seen more as a social and consumptive activity.
This overall theme is important because when the discussion goes towards Part 3 of the politics of energy, the concept of societies and social classes privileged enough to have access to energy vs those without, requires an empathized view to understanding daily life without this privilege. Furthermore, this empathy allows an understanding of what world view perspective this shapes for those still seeking this access especially given that access of knowledge of what good living standards are proliferates more with the advent of the internet and global connectivity. This is essential in the path of allowing the human race to achieve the aspiration of access for all, everywhere.
Energy, Development & The Energy Trilemma
As long established and known, energy is at the core of human life and lifestyle development. Economies and societies are hard-pressed to come up with a practical solution to developing the average citizen’s lifestyle while not using a significant amount of energy per capita. Efficiency improvements in energy i.e. doing more with equal or less energy will be key in the future but this is an ongoing process and does not change current consumption reality (energy efficiency will be an upcoming article here as it is an important aspect in the energy transition).
This makes sense because in order to enjoy the benefits of mass scale agriculture via fertilizers, transportation of goods and services around the world, heating and cooling in buildings, primary and service industries, internet connectivity etc. all require sizeable amounts of energy usage. Pop culture and the arts like blockbuster science fiction movies are riddled with stories that revolve around an energy source being or in proximity of being the focal concept of e.g., Vibranium in the Black Panther stories (and energy sources in much of the Marvel Cinematic Universe like the Tessaract), Unobtanium in the first Avatar or humans themselves as virtual batteries in The Matrix trilogy to name a few for the movie enthusiasts among us!
What this intimate relationship between energy and prosperity coupled with the discussion around practicality of solutions ultimately implies is that a successful energy transition must be anchored in the practical reality as opposed to being a social consensus. Not being anchored in social consensus here is not referring to that it does not need coordination and overall social agreement with cohesive execution. It is more to say social consensus does not determine the technologically constrained realities and practicalities as social consensus does not equal reality - a lesson exemplified many times in history. If we are therefore to successfully deliver an energy transition and one that inclusively brings those without along, we will need to navigate some level of finding common and factual understanding. Note here also, energy transition is being used in both senses of the meaning as explained in the articles here regarding the absolute vs mix view. Some have therefore summarized the overall challenge as the “energy trilemma” where the task at hands requires us finding a way to balance energy security, emissions and the affordability of the cost of doing so.
Final thoughts
So where does this leave us before we layer on top of this foundation the next and potentially more challenging areas of socio-economic nature in Part 2 and 3 of this discussion series ? i.e., when capital enters the picture in it’s deployment to fund energy and the energy transition but aims to profiteer and simultaneously be overall stakeholder sustainable as well the politics which then speaks to social organization, governance and need for political constituency to begin with in order even have a chance to enact required/desired reforms ?
This leaves us I believe with the most important wall to lean on when talking energy and energy adjacent topics – and this is that the physical limitations of ensuring global energy provision are physical in nature, tangibly real and executionally practical. The social dynamics that then layer on top require us to always go back to this solid wall. This allows us to validate the truth and practicality of what we read and hear regarding what is possible as well as robustly ventilate what compromises each trade off means. Without this grounding, the social noise of how to successfully transition the world while balancing living standards, including the humane upliftment of those with no decent living standards to talk of, will potentially end up being a conflict devolving endeavor.. While this maybe the case already - we have the power to steer towards net positive outcomes with open minded and balanced dialogue.
