EV 101: A summary of e-Mobility
What exactly is an Electric Vehicle?
The term "Electric Vehicle" (usually abbreviated EV), has become somewhat of an automotive technology buzzword. The global drive for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction has been and continues to be a significant proponent in the development of partly or fully electric vehicles. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), such vehicles have grown from almost nothing in 2010 to a global stock of about 3 million currently. The last 5 years alone have witnessed a 500% growth rate in vehicle count. Large vehicle corporations are constantly informing the public of their strides in this arena as well as delivering vehicle models to satisfy demand towards electromobility. For example, Volvo aims to have an entirely hybrid or electric vehicle offering by 2019 and Jaguar Land Rover plans to electrify its entire new vehicle stable by 2020. Other major car manufacturers such as Toyota, Mazda, Daimler, Ford and VW Group are investing a combined total of about $100bn between now and 2030. This trend is reinforced by trailblazing companies such as Tesla, which is becoming a household name with regards to the effort to bring electric vehicles to the mass market's foyer.
Here in South Africa, fuel prices are at record highs of around 17 Rand/litre (approx. $1.2/litre) owing to a combination of high oil prices, deteriorated emerging economy dollar exchange rate and high taxes embedded in the fuel price. As such, some have wondered if the hype of EVs is a future that can feasibly gain traction and whether they would be more economical to purchase and subsequently run than a regular car. The starting point however, is to get a basic understanding of what an EV is and what are the broad types in existence. From there, we can individually posit what the future could potentially hold globally and locally with respect to mobility.
At the most basic level, an EV is a vehicle propelled by one or more electric motors as opposed to an internal combustion engine (ICE). However, there are various types of vehicular electromobility worth distinguishing in order to dissect the offering of the market.
The different types of “Electric Vehicles”
"Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)"
This is a vehicle using two (or more) distinct sources of power for propulsion. The most common is one using both an internal combustion engine and an electric motor powered by a battery. Typically, the electric motor operates for lower speed ranges while the ICE operates for cruising speeds though this can be at the driver's discretion. The use of the electric motor to supplement the ICE increases like-for-like vehicle fuel economy by about 30-40%. The main characteristic to note is that the battery charges from the kinetic energy implicit in the car's movement. In essence, the regular engine acts as a facilitator to a generator which produces electricity for the battery. The battery can also gain charge from recovering energy from the vehicle brakes through a system called regenerative braking. A familiar example of a hybrid vehicle is the Toyota Prius.
"Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)"
Similar to an HEV, the vehicle operates using two sources of power. However, in this case, the battery can charge from being plugged into a charging socket. This means the car does not have to be in motion for the battery to charge but it can also charge while in motion as well as from the regenerative braking concept like an HEV. PHEVs provide an estimated 20-40%% reduction in vehicular like-for-like green house gas exhaust emissions. Some readily seen examples in SA would be the BMW i8 (pictured below), the BMWi3 (plug in hybrid version), the BMW330e and the Mercedes 350e
Plug-In Electric Vehicle/ Battery Electric Vehicle (PEV/BEV or just EV)
This is a vehicle entirely powered by an electric motor which in turn is powered via a battery. This battery intakes and stores electric energy via plug-in charging. There is no engine but rather an electric motor therefore there are 0 exhaust emissions. The key point to note is that the presence of an electric motor instead of an engine is what makes a PEV considered the full and "true" definition of an electric vehicle as opposed to HEVs and PHEVs which have combustion engines in them as explained above. The two examples available in SA are the Nissan Leaf (pictured below) and the BMW i3 (full electric version). Other examples outside the local market include all 3 Tesla models i.e the Model 3, Model X and Model S.
Hydrogen Fuel Cell vehicle
This is a vehicle which is powered by a fuel cell stack which produces electricity to power the electric motor turning the wheels. The key characteristic here is that the fuel cell functions by mixing hydrogen and oxygen to produce this electricity. The hydrogen is filled into the car's fuel tank via fill up in a similar style to regular petrol/gasoline fill up (see example picture below) but instead, it is filled with pressurized hydrogen while the oxygen for the chemical reaction to create the electricity comes from the air. This chemical reaction producing the electricity has it's only by product as pure water - pure enough to even drink from the exhaust pipe (though you shouldn't). This can therefore also be considered a 0 emissions form of vehicle technology. Hyundai is releasing the Nexo in early 2019 (pictured below) and the SUV is said to have a range of 600km from a full tank of hydrogen which is comparable to a regular ICE car. Generally, hydrogen fuel cell vehciles are similar to regular vehicles with respect to fueling time as well as distance range.
Considerations for the future
With these main categories of vehicle classifications, the below points can be highlighted to summarize what future considerations hold globally and even locally for a country like South Africa.
Net emissions perspective
A key consideration for PHEVs and PEVs in terms of the emission reduction benefit will be the source of the electricity that is used for the charging. So for instance if additional coal is required to provide power to a growing EV complement, this might negate emissions reductions. This sort of analysis is sometimes refereed to as well-to-wheels emissions analysis and can reveal what the net position would be with regards to electricity consumption and net emissions reduction. This is of particular importance given coals' relative abundance and low production cost for countries such as South Africa.
Vehicle replacement cycles
As highlighted in introduction, many car makers are moving towards some kind of EV offering, granted with different aggression and pace. Such moves might have interesting consequences in countries like South Africa which are not home to global vehicle company headquarters. Decisions to discontinue certain types of ICE vehicle models in some of these brands might mean significant drop in new sale ownership of these brands given infrastructural constraints and general higher cost of most EV models when compared to regular vehicles.
This in turn casts commonplace vehicle financing strategies such as 3 year rolling residual type payment purchases into an interesting space where they might not be possible within the brand when owners have to replace their financed vehicle. Alternatively, the new models from these brands may actually proliferate which means the infrastructure to support them would have to somehow be forced onto the South African market.
The hydrogen fuel cell vs. the battery
The hydrogen fuel cell technology is seen in some commentary circles to be at war with battery technology with some even feeling it is a “secretly superior” technology. Indeed currently, latest models of hydrogen fuel cell cars can be filled in similar fashion and timeline to a petrol/gasoline car while importantly also delivering the same travel range as previously mentioned. In this battle-ground, plug-in electric vehicles do not yet have similar range and obtaining a full charge takes considerably longer even with a fast charger. A typical electric car such as the Nissan LEAF 30kWh takes 4 hours to charge from empty with a 7kW home charging point.
However, the major drawback of hydrogen is that despite being the most abundant element on earth, it does not occur in solitary form but rather always bonded to other elements e.g. with oxygen to make water. This means commercialization of isolated pressurized hydrogen for fuel cells is comparatively more expensive than battery technology. EVs also have the benefit of infrastructure being both in place and growing i.e. plug in sockets in homes and charge points in cities. This is unlike hydrogen whose large quantity, pressurized storage is still rather costly and under-invested.
If hydrogen fill up infrastructure is to proliferate, more fuel cell cars will need to be on the roads to make investments worth it but this car volume growth in turn won’t happen if there is no fill-up infrastructure. Therein lays the paradox hindering the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle’s momentum. This is all the while as battery technology improves, including vehicle ranges and charge times and importantly, vehicle cost as shown below.
It shall be worth keeping a pulse on this technology war even if the winner would seem obvious from an investment and observational perspective because in technology, things can change drastically with one black-swan development.
Where to from here?
Latest figures put the number of vehicles on SA roads at about 12 million which represents a vehicle to population proportion of about 20%. EVs including hybrids are still a very small portion of this and the infrastructure is still only slowly hiking its way up. Gauteng province, the economic hub of the country, has about 90 charge stations to cater for the approx. 20 EV and PEV models available in the country shown below.
Source: Autos&Electric 2018
The current local market conditions and availability considering price-points point towards a medium term transition. Even other countries were growth has been phenomenal and continues to be such in the short to medium term , authorities have had to aid growth of the EV industry through tax breaks and other subsidization techniques. The SA government has voiced that it will be reducing import duties on such vehicles from 25 to 18% though the effective date is not yet confirmed. Additionally, in some nations, particularly at city level, there is serious talk of combustion engine car bans from about 2025 e.g. Denmark, Norway, Germany, Israel, Ireland, France, Taiwan. It remains to be seen if this will occur as promised but acceleration on such developments will be highly revealing as to how far and how fast the world is poised to go down Electric Avenue.
